THE SIGNAL
Hey folks, Hope this email finds you with your morning coffee (or whatever gets you through these wild swings) and not checking your portfolio every 5 minutes.
Today, I want to chat about Bitcoin's price action because, it's got everyone split like a bad breakup. I saw a post from Milk Road that nails it with a chart showing BTC's wild ride, peaking high, dipping sharp to around $60K recently, and the market is split on where Bitcoin heads next.
The Bulls
They're hanging their hats on that classic 200-week moving average (sitting roughly $65K–$68K zone). It's held as support in past cycles, we bounced hard off the lows, and the quick recovery has them saying: "See? We're fine. This is just noise."
The Moderate Bears
These folks are patient. They're eyeing a deeper pullback—maybe $40K–$50K—as the real buying opportunity before the next leg up. Some prediction markets (looking at you, Polymarket) are still pricing in decent odds for sub-$50K this year.
The Giga Bears
The full doom crew. They're calling for $30K or lower by late year, pointing to those historic 70–80%+ drawdowns we've survived before. Ouch, but not impossible in crypto.
What's driving the chop?
Heavy ETF outflows rattling nerves
Some macro headwinds (higher yields, rate uncertainty)
But those sharp rebounds keep reminding us: demand isn't dead—it's just picky.
Key levels to watch this week:
Hold above $65K–$68K → Bulls stay in control
Break below $60K → Could test those lower zones the bears love talking about
Bottom line? If you're here for the long game—believing BTC's story gets way bigger over the next 5–10 years—don't try to nail the exact bottom. Dollar-cost average in, breathe, and let compounding do the heavy lifting.
Where are you landing right now, bullish dip buyer, waiting for more pain, or just chilling? Hit reply and tell me. I love hearing your takes.
TOP STORIES
📰 Crypto in the News
Bitcoin rebounds after steep drop, still down sharply for week — After plunging towards ~$60K, Bitcoin surged back above $70K on heavy volatility, yet ended the week with one of its worst performances since 2022, illustrating lingering market stress and investor uncertainty. Major altcoins also saw rebounds, but overall sentiment remains weak as broader risk assets slump. Price action signals potential turning points, but not a clear bottom yet
Crypto derivatives and exchange dynamics show stress signals — Reports indicate unraveling leveraged ETH positions contributing to large losses and heightened exchange liquidity pressures. These technical stress indicators point to deeper market fragility beyond spot price moves. Such conditions can amplify sell-offs or sudden bounces
Gemini exchange cuts 25% of workforce amid downturn — Amid prolonged crypto market weakness, Gemini announced a major workforce reduction and scaled back international operations to focus on core markets. The layoffs and strategic refocus illustrate how firms are adjusting to prolonged low-growth conditions. It also signals cost-optimization trends across the industry.
CRYPTO TRIVIA
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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.